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Rubber early review on the 25th: expected to limit Shanghai rubber's rally
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Rubber early review on the 25th: expected to limit Shanghai rubber's rally

(Summary description)Yesterday, the natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose and fell. The main contract 0907 finally closed at 13,655 yuan, down 75 points. The trading volume was 795,132 lots, and the position was lightened by 13,582 lots. Crude oil futures were weak overnight, and the US stock market fell across the board, which is expected to limit the gains of Hujiao.

Rubber early review on the 25th: expected to limit Shanghai rubber's rally

(Summary description)Yesterday, the natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose and fell. The main contract 0907 finally closed at 13,655 yuan, down 75 points. The trading volume was 795,132 lots, and the position was lightened by 13,582 lots. Crude oil futures were weak overnight, and the US stock market fell across the board, which is expected to limit the gains of Hujiao.

Information

  Yesterday, the natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose and fell. The main contract 0907 finally closed at 13,655 yuan, down 75 points, the trading volume was 795,132 lots, and the position was lightened by 13,582 lots. Overnight crude oil futures were weak and the US stock market fell across the board, which is expected to limit the gains of Hujiao.

  TOCOM rubber futures closed higher on Tuesday as the yen weakened and crude oil prices firmed. However, the benchmark contract failed to stay above the high of 150 yen, suggesting that weak demand will continue to suppress prices and curb further gains. The market reached this level in the morning and afternoon. The United States launched a plan to buy bank toxic assets, which helped the prices of commodities such as crude oil and copper soar on Monday. The stock market also rose, helping boost sentiment in the rubber market. A Thai trader said, “The popularity of other commodity markets seems to be good, and the Japanese yen, which was originally expected to rise, suddenly weakened, so the rubber futures gained external support.” The TOCOM benchmark August rubber futures contract closed up 1 yen or 0.7 %, at 149.7 yen per kilogram, it was as high as 152.6 yen during the session, the highest since January 19 this year. The contract closed up 4.9% on the previous day, having previously risen to the highest in seven weeks.

  US crude oil futures rose late on Tuesday, but the overall price remained weak. The settlement price of NYMEX-May crude oil futures rose by US$0.18, or 0.33%, to US$53.98 per barrel. This is the highest settlement price since closing at US$54.43 on November 28 last year. The intraday trading range is US$52.45-54.20. .

  However, as investors began to reassess the fate of the government's toxic asset clean-up plan, the U.S. stock market fell sharply on Tuesday after experiencing Monday’s surge. After the market began to question whether the US government’s $1 trillion toxic asset cleanup plan would work, and investors took profits, bank stocks fell sharply today after their best day in 16 years on Monday. The Dow fell 115.89 points, or 1.49%, to 7,659.97 points; the S&P 500 index fell 16.67 points, or 2.02%, to 806.25 points; the Nasdaq fell 39.25 points, or 2.52%, to 1,516.52 points.

  In terms of spot, Asian spot rubber prices followed the rise in the futures market on Tuesday, but the recent rise has caused buyers in the spot market to stay on the sidelines. A Thai trader said, "The current market is very light." He also said that the Thai government plans to buy rubber from farmers to support prices "it is not necessary in winter."

  The Thai No. 3 smoked sheet glue RSS3 shipped in April was quoted at 150 cents per kilogram, compared to 150 cents per kilogram on the previous trading day. The Thai tire grade standard rubber STR20 shipped in April was quoted at 148 cents per kilogram, compared with 147 cents per kilogram in the previous trading day. The Indonesian tire-grade standard rubber SIR20 shipped in April was quoted at 134.5 cents per kilogram, compared with 132.2 cents per kilogram in the previous trading day. The Malaysian tire-grade standard rubber SMR20 shipped in April was quoted at 150 cents per kilogram, compared with 147 cents per kilo on the previous trading day.

  In other aspects, on March 17, the Jinjiang branch of Hainan Land Reclamation officially opened, 11 days earlier than the same period in 2008, and the initial cutting rate reached more than 95%, which was an increase of 20% from 75% in 2008. So far in 2009, Hainan's rubber phenology is relatively ideal, and the rubber trees are growing well. The rubber harvesting in 2009 will not be significantly delayed, and it is expected that all harvesting will be achieved in mid-to-late April. According to the estimated opening time of each branch of Haijiao Group, in mid-March, rubber in southern Hainan such as Sanya, Ledong, Baoting, Lingshui, etc. will take the lead; from the end of March to mid-April, in central Hainan such as Danzhou, Baisha, Qiongzhong, Qionghai, Tunchang, Lingao, Chengmai and other areas in Hainan will also be opened in large parts; northern Hainan such as Haikou and Wenchang will also be opened in mid-to-late April. As long as there is no cold current, the cutting will be smoother. In 2009, the production status of natural rubber in China's production areas may rebound sharply, which puts a certain pressure on prices.

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